Luxury Watch Brands: Swiss Exports Rebound in June but the Half Stays Flat

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published its mid-year figures on July 21, and the headline looks like a turning point: Swiss watch exports rose 11.2% in June to nearly CHF 2.4 billion, the second consecutive month of rapid recovery after two years of decline. Read one line further and the picture cools. Over the first six months, exports still fell 0.7% in value to CHF 12.8 billion. Both facts are true, and the gap between them is where the real story of the luxury watch market in 2026 lives.

What June Actually Delivered

June was strong across the board. Volumes rose 11.7% to 1.3 million pieces, and every major category advanced. Wristwatches, which carry the bulk of the sector’s value, climbed 11.7% to CHF 2.284 billion. Bimetallic models were the standout, surging 42.1% to CHF 453.3 million. Watches in other metals rose 22.9%, steel gained 5% and precious metals added 2.9%, held back by a gold price that spent the half at record levels.

Geographically, June was led by the United Arab Emirates at 20.4%, the United States at 12.7%, the United Kingdom at 12.2%, Japan at 8.8%, Hong Kong at 6.9% and Singapore at 6.7%. On the other side, China fell 16.5%, Germany 10.6% and Italy 21.4%.

The Caveat the Headline Skips

Here is the detail we would flag to any client reading this data: the 11.2% figure is heavily flattered by France, where exports more than doubled in a single month. The Federation itself states that this figure does not represent actual French demand. Exclude France and June growth drops to roughly 5.6%. Still a rebound, but a considerably more modest one than the headline suggests.

That distinction matters because it changes the narrative from recovery to stabilisation. Q1 came in barely better than flat at 1.4%, April collapsed 16.6%, May scraped 0.4% and June rebounded. Averaged out, the half is flat. Anyone declaring the downturn over is reading one month, not six.

The American Question

Over the half, exports to the United States fell 14.8%. Taken alone, that number looks alarming for the market that has carried the industry since 2021. It is largely a base effect: exports to the US soared 150% in April 2025 as brands rushed shipments ahead of announced tariffs, creating an artificially high comparison. Measured over two years, US exports are up 2.6% against 2024, which the Federation reads as confirmation that the market remains robust. June’s 12.7% gain supports that reading, and it echoes what we saw when American demand defied the tariff shock earlier in the cycle.

The open risk is what Washington does next. The Federation is explicit that uncertainty remains particularly high both in the Middle East and around future US tariffs on Switzerland. Neither is a variable the industry can price.

Three Pressures Behind the Numbers

1. The Middle East. The region accounts for 10% of Swiss watch exports and, until the conflict that began at the end of February, offered the best growth potential in the world. It has been destabilised for four months.
2. Gold. Record prices in the first half hit both selling prices and production costs. Precious-metal watches grew only 2.9% in a month when steel and bimetallic pieces ran far ahead, and that spread is a pricing signal.
3. Retail caution. Retailers are restocking conservatively. Combined with the two factors above, that keeps pressure on Swiss production. Some suppliers are approaching the end of short-time working schemes, others have already cut headcount, and the moderate decline in employment has continued.

What It Means If You Buy Watches

Three practical readings for collectors rather than analysts.

First, the recovery signals from brand results arrived before the export data. Richemont posted 8% growth in Specialist Watchmakers and 20% at group level, and Swatch Group reported 8.5% at constant rates, both ahead of the Federation’s June print. Export figures are a lagging indicator of what brands already know, so treat them as confirmation rather than prediction.

Second, the gold spread is worth watching. When precious-metal pieces lag steel and bimetallic by that margin in a rebound month, it usually means allocation budgets are being redirected toward references where the metal cost is not doing the work. For anyone weighing a luxury watch as an investment, that spread is more informative than any single brand’s price increase.

Third, scarcity is not loosening at the top. Volume growth concentrated below CHF 500 means the waiting lists at the billion-dollar watch brands are not being solved by supply. If you were waiting for a flat market to shorten a list, this half is not it.

Bottom Line

June’s 11.2% jump is genuine and welcome, but it is one month, partly a French accounting quirk, and it sits on top of a half that still closed slightly down. The structural picture is unchanged: fewer watches leaving Switzerland than a decade ago, at much higher average values, with demand concentrated in a small number of maisons and a small number of markets. Watch the next two prints, watch Washington, and treat any single month as a data point rather than a trend. The novelties unveiled at LVMH Watch Week will meet a market that is steady, not hungry.

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